Analysts seem to believe that the Call of Duty games have reached their highest sales with Black Ops and Modern Warfare 3 in the last two years. But there is no way Black Ops 2 won't sell millions.
Analyst Ben Schachter of Macquarie Securities said that he has “significant concerns that CoD may have peaked in 2011”. He supported his argument by stating that Modern Warfare 3′s sales were slightly below Black Ops' sales.
Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities said that since annual sales at a 25 million level “are unprecedented” he agrees with Schachter. He also explained that growth in online multiplayer is what supported the sales of the series.
“[CoD] was (and probably still is) the best multiplayer experience available, [but] Battlefield multiplayer probably cannibalized it a little bit, and this year, Halo and Medal of Honor could cannibalize CoD a bit more. Next year, another Battlefield plus the Respawn and Bungie games probably cannibalize it a bit more.”
“There’s nothing wrong with 22 million units sold, or with 19 million or 16 million. CoD will remain the best selling game (at least until GTA) and Activision shouldn’t be concerned if it loses some players at the margin. They created a phenomenon, and others are emulating them”, Pachter said.
Colin Sebastian of RW Baird says that publisher Activision assumes “Call of Duty is lower this year than last year”. This is why he is the same opinion as the other two analysts.
“Also, if new consoles are coming next year, that is typically a disruptive period for game sales, and that could drive sales lower as well, at least temporarily. The bigger question I think is whether the franchise (or any franchise) is in a continuous period of decline. Personally, I don’t know which competing console title would take so much share from Call of Duty.”
■ Jensen6
